EUR USD Weekly timeframe with support composed of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281 and a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.1237, as expected, delivered a ‘floor’ in recent trading. Harmonic traders will acknowledge the 1.618% component represents an ‘alternate AB=CD bullish pattern’.
The EUR USD upriver, resistance is at $1.1473-1.1583.
While we have active support from $1.1237-1.1281, the currency pair taking out 2nd November low (2020) at $1.1603 suggests (technically) we may be transitioning to a downtrend.
Wednesday pencilled in a hammer candle pattern (bullish signal in oversold markets), a pattern confirmed by Thursday extending recovery gains. The recent combination, as you can see, took shape ahead of Quasimodo support at $1.1213 (positioned beneath the weekly timeframe’s Fibonacci structure).
Interestingly, the daily timeframe’s shooting star on the dollar index from resistance between 96.37 and 95.80 also witnessed extended losses.
While immediate flow has been trending lower since late May tops at $1.2266, momentum, according to the relative strength index (RSI), has exited oversold space and launched the beginnings of potential bullish divergence. Ultimately, technicians will want to see continued upside within the indicator, preferably testing the 50.00 centreline.
EUR USD H4 timeframe:
Latest out of the H4 chart shows the currency pair shaking hands with a decision point at $1.1387-1.1366.
Failure to attract a bearish scene unmasks the possibility of a run to Quasimodo support-turned resistance from $1.1438. Though should sellers take the wheel from $1.1387-1.1366, spinning back to Wednesday’s low at $1.1263 is in the offing, a base printed just north of Quasimodo support from $1.1243.
For those who read Thursday’s technical briefing you may recall the following points (italics):
Weekly support making an entrance between $1.1237 and $1.1281, together with the daily timeframe forming a hammer candlestick pattern (and the dollar index forming a shooting star [inverse signals]), could elevate short-term flow to H4 resistance at $1.1349 [since removed] and the decision point at $1.1387-1.1366.
The above implies buyers may hold ground north of $1.13 on the H1 and take aim at the decision point from $1.1391-1.1378 (wrapped around the upper edge of the H4 decision point mentioned above at $1.1387-1.1366).
As evident from the H1 scale, the unit did indeed fashion support above $1.13 on Thursday and, in recent hours, closed in on the H1 timeframe’s decision point at $1.1391-1.1378.
In addition to the short-term technical framework, the relative strength index (RSI) is crossing swords with overbought territory (previous overbought signal seen 28th October).
Observed Technical Levels:
A clear difference of opinion is seen in this market at the moment.
On the one hand, the higher timeframes technical pendulum is swinging in favour of further recovery gains until reaching weekly resistance at $1.1473-1.1583.
On the other hand, the H4 timeframe gravitated into a decision point at $1.1387-1.1366, which happens to have the H1 timeframe’s decision point from $1.1391-1.1378 wrapped around its upper edge.
Therefore, a short-term dip lower could materialise before longer-term buyers gear up for another push.