Festus Keyamo discusses the political challenges facing Rabiu Kwankwaso as he seeks to navigate his presidential ambitions.
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, made a statement. He mentioned that the former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is in a difficult political situation. Kwankwaso has “boxed himself into one of the tightest corners in his political career.” Keyamo referred to Kwankwaso’s refusal or indecision to accept an earlier political olive branch from the All Progressives Congress.
Festus Keyamo, who stated on Sunday, noted that he had “always admired Engr. Mohammed Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso from a distance.” He argued that recent political developments had left the former governor with fewer choices. This situation is ahead of the 2027 general election.
“Atiku is the owner of ADC (argue with your keypad, if you like). Only a major political Party can win a Presidential election in Nigeria.
“NNPP is still a one-State Party. There has been a recent wave of defections from NNPP, including the Governor himself. It is doubtful if it can keep its grip on Kano in 2027. A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants.”
He further argued that the former governor’s calculations rule out support for a northern presidential candidate in 2027.
“Kwankwaso will not support a Northern candidate. Supporting a Northern candidate ends his own Presidential ambition. He will have to wait another 16 years, after 2027, to get a shot at the Presidency. There would be 8 years for the Northern Candidate. Then, it would rotate to the South for another 8 years.
“That’s a gamble he WILL NOT TAKE. He will be 86 years old by then. So, this entirely rules out an ATIKU-Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027”, Keyamo’s s statement continued.
Keyamo said that based on prevailing political realities, 2031 appears to be Kwankwaso’s most realistic presidential window. Nevertheless, he warned that decisions taken in 2027 would be decisive.
“Based on the above calculations, the only pathway for Kwankwaso is in 2031. The alliance he builds in 2027 will be crucial to his ambitions in 2031.
“If his grip on Kano slips in 2027, it will water down his clout and influence. This will affect his chances in 2031 to be handed a Presidential ticket by any of the major Political parties. This is the moment he can capitalize on his presumed dominance of Kano politics. He should take a chance,” he added.
The minister narrowed Kwankwaso’s realistic alliance options to three political parties, noting that each comes with significant limitations.
“Kwankwaso’s only chance of a realistic alliance now with a major political Party is limited to a few options. These include the PDP, the APC, or the Labour Party. These are the PDP, the APC, or the Labour Party. This is possible only if Peter Obi returns there. He must pick the 2027 Presidential ticket. He would also need to agree to run as VP candidate to Obi. But all three options show their own challenges,” Keyamo said.
He spoke about the Peoples Democratic Party. He stated: “The PDP is now gasping for breath. It is easier for Kwankwaso to return to PDP on some terms. These terms include taking over the entire structure in Kano and some North-West states. It also involves returning Kano to PDP).
“And that will signal the death of NNPP. The zoning of the Presidential ticket to the South would mean he has to suspend his 2027 Presidential ambition. It will be delayed till 2031.”
On the APC choice, Keyamo said, “If Kwankwaso decides to join forces with the APC, he will have limited influence. He won’t be capable of dictating many terms to the Party.” Kwankwaso can’t impose many conditions on the Party. Key figures have moved from NNPP to APC in Kano. This strengthens the APC’s structure in Kano. It is now in a better position to challenge the NNPP in 2027.
“The APC is not so desperate for a Kwankwaso in Kano. Still, I would be glad to welcome him into the Party. He remains an asset. One thing is sure: the APC can’t throw its entire structure in Kano under the bus for a Kwankwaso. This is especially true with the Governor parting ways with him.
“But the attraction of the APC for him is that the APC still has the national spread. It also has the structures to keep power in 2031. So, an APC choice for Kwankwaso will also mean a suspension of his Presidential ambition till 2031.”
On the Labour Party, he was categorical. He stated, “The 2027 Labour Party choice for Kwankwaso is narrower. This is because he simply can’t and will not run as Vice-Presidential candidate to Peter Obi. Take that to the bank.
“His own people will not even support him to give a fresh 8 years to the South. Ignore all the noise of ‘I will serve just one term.”
Keyamo concluded that Kwankwaso now stands at a critical political juncture with career-defining consequences.
“But one fact is clear: just like late Buhari and the CPC, he will stay a local champion. He will stay with his NNPP. This will happen without a handshake with another major Party. Yet, that too soon vanished with the current predicament of the Party in Kano,” his statement concluded.
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